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Built by a full-time investor. Powered by conviction.
Our 8-figure portfolio returned +32% YTD. No margin. No hedges. Fundamentals only. This is real Time-Weighted Return (TWR) on real capital.
TL;DR: The bull market is maturing, making deep conviction the key to performance. Investors are looking past headline noise towards quality businesses, treating any volatility as a chance to buy. I’m still deploying capital into equities, but keeping my portfolio concentrated for optimal risk/reward. With quality becoming expensive, my focus is solely on high-conviction companies with deep moats and flawless execution like ZETA 0.00%↑ and HIMS 0.00%↑
Market Update: Quality Over Hype
Earnings from big tech and my portfolio companies so far have been stellar! The market’s message is clear. Despite the headline noise, investors are shrugging it off and focusing on what works: high-quality businesses that continue to execute. The market is rewarding companies with real fundamentals, especially in sectors like AI-powered platforms and health tech where innovators are building durable advantages.
What This Means for Investors
Markets are forward-thinking, pricing in sustained growth. Beyond short-term rates, AI efficiencies and consumer demand in personalized services are the big drivers. This turns dips in names like ZETA and HIMS into accumulation spots, backed by revenue beats and margin gains.
Look at the chart of ZETA revenue acceleration.
And look at the HIMS subscriber trends exploding.
The Anatomy of High Conviction: Spotlight on ZETA
High conviction isn't hype or stubbornness. It’s a framework from M&A level diligence: differentiation, execution, long-term path. When they align, you forget the noise and capitalize on upside.
ZETA exemplifies this.
The Moat: Their Data Cloud is proprietary gold, with intel on millions that rivals can’t match. In marketing, this fuels AI tools for brands to win customers smarter.
Management Execution: David Steinberg leads with killer allocation and culture. They’ve nailed 15 straight beat and raise quarters. Stay tuned for their Q2 earnings analysis I’ll do next week.
Long-Term Path: ZETA and its AI platform disrupting marketing for enterprises. TAM in the billions, and they’re ramping. This is my investment model and price targets.
Moat intact? Execution on point? Path clear? Absolutely. That’s why ZETA anchors the portfolio.
My Thoughts on HIMS
Shifting to health tech, HIMS draws tons of questions. Overvalued? Sustainable? Here’s my take.
HIMS is redefining consumer healthcare with a direct platform that’s sticky and scalable. From digital telehealth to personalized meds, they’re turning frustration into loyalty. Who on this planet does not want to feel and look better?
The Moat: Brand love in a bland space, plus data-driven personalization. Subscribers stick, with net retention high.
Execution: Management crushes it, Q2 revenue of $544.8M (up 73% YoY) miss vs expectations of $550M and net income of $42.5M. Subscribers grew to over 2.4 million, with a significant increase in users opting for personalized solutions. Reaffirmed its 2025 guidance of $2.3B-$2.4B and Adjusted EBITDA of $295M-$335M. This quarter they had significant changes on the leadership team that can slow down momentum temporarily.
Earlier this year they’ve announced a partnership with Novo Nordisk. They (Novo) have tried to screw them, and HIMS CEO always, always looks out for its customers. The way it should be done.
Long-Term Path: On track for $2.3B to $2.4B revenue in 2025, up huge from $1.5B in 2024. As compounded meds and AI tailoring grow, margins could hit 20% plus. Valuation still leaves room for multiples expansion.
This is a highly volatile name, so be patient and use dips for accumulation. Below is our position as of August 5th.
Caption it: "Conviction plays: AI data and health innovator."
HIMS isn’t a fad. It’s building the future of accessible and personalized care. We added on dips, conviction high. Think years ahead.
Recent Portfolio Action
How we are positioning? Well, we’ve been actively managing the portfolio last month, adding to core convictions and trimming where appropriate. Highlights below:
🔼 Adds (58 buys)
OSCR 0.00%↑ : largest allocation increase. strong fundamentals, optionality in personalized care, valuation still compelling
IREN 0.00%↑ : scaled up exposure. direct beneficiary of AI compute demand, real assets + real cash flow
ZETA 0.00%↑ : added again. sticky enterprise software with upside as AI marketing machine
HIMS 0.00%↑ : incremental adds on dips. rapid growth in subs, optionality in compounded meds
APP 0.00%↑ : modest build-up as I want to keep accumulating. benefiting from performance-based ad budgets
TMDX 0.00%↑ : tactical adds on stellar Q2 performance. execution remains excellent.
PEP 0.00%↑ / $BTC / IBIT calls: minor activity, mostly strategic or monitoring
🔽 Sells (5 sells)
Trimmed ASPN 0.00%↑ to adjust size after huge run from lows
Largest trim: $ETH, locking in profits after a solid run
You can see it all live with real-time notifications. I think for around 20 bucks it’s a bargain right now.
Final Thoughts
This is not a time to be passive or distracted by headline noise. It’s a moment to execute on preparation.
If you’re seeing fewer “easy buys,” you’re not alone. That’s how bull markets mature.
Stick to your process. Stick to your convictions.
Enjoy your summer!
PS: You can reach out to me on X here , I answer every message.
PS2: If you want to sneak and peek on Foliotrail, I suggest you give it a try (30 days free).